IPv4 Address Transfer Prices Down?

Last year I wrote about the IPv4 Address Transfer Process. Recently I was involved in another IPv4 transfer. I was surprised to see that IPv4 prices have fallen in the last year. I have done some rudimentary analysis of the APNIC transfer statistics to try to figure out why.

APNIC publishes statistics on transfers at ftp.apnic.net/public/transfers/apnic. These text files list all resource transfers that have taken place - the “to” & “from” organisation, the resource type, the date, etc. I am very interested in looking at the trends. How many transactions take place each month, and how many addresses are being transferred?

I wrote a simple Python script to do this analysis for me. It retrieves the latest statistics, and converts them into a Google chart:

APNIC Transfers per MonthTransactionsPrefixes (/24s)Jan2011Jan2012Jan2013Jan2014Jan2015Jan2016Jan2017Jan2018Jan201905010015020025005,00010,00015,00020,00025,000TransactionsPrefixes (/24s)
Year/MonthTransactionsPrefixes (/24s)
November 201029
December 201000
January 2011324
February 201100
March 201111
April 2011310
May 2011768
June 2011396
July 201125
August 201114413
September 201125624
October 201154672
November 201110286
December 20111094
January 2012191506
February 20127546
March 201212229
April 20128287
May 20121920
June 20124324
July 201220287
August 201229588
September 20123515
October 2012231742
November 20125201
December 201217871
January 201320432
February 20137336
March 20138394
April 2013141024
May 2013151602
June 201347975
July 20136372
August 201320782
September 201311135
October 201310436
November 201315625
December 201316552
January 201419406
February 2014242829
March 2014481271
April 2014371888
May 2014122389
June 2014471595
July 2014231070
August 201410232
September 2014242201
October 201421427
November 201461348
December 201417388
January 201517139
February 2015415793
March 2015751321
April 2015774680
May 2015305168
June 2015451674
July 201519625
August 2015221426
September 201522649
October 201538517
November 2015181144
December 2015411517
January 201623835
February 20162343861
March 2016476088
April 2016301209
May 201622963
June 2016314763
July 2016315167
August 2016271113
September 2016391521
October 201623552
November 2016473278
December 2016531864
January 201729633
February 2017281639
March 201732395
April 201718456
May 2017631810
June 2017412027
July 201746578
August 2017512994
September 2017371080
October 2017532484
November 2017541610
December 2017271338
January 2018391872
February 2018391394
March 201840979
April 20186924335
May 201843336
June 2018452922
July 2018472103
August 2018303447
September 2018502272
October 2018312387
November 201830272
December 201837791
January 2019401373
February 2019411088
March 2019401266
April 2019402449
May 2019351276
June 2019291205
July 2019671473

Note this does not do live updates. It is a point in time snapshot, generated using the current data at the time the script is run. If you would like to update the code to do live updates, fork it from Github here. I’d also love to update the script to include stats from other RIRs.

The script graphs both the number of transactions per month, and the number of prefixes transferred per month (in /24s). You can see a clear up-tick in 2015. February 2015 was the highest month for prefixes transferred, and March and April set new records for transactions in a month.

Is this why prices have fallen? Now that we have well-established markets for IPv4 resource transfers, is that drawing more sellers onto the market? My current theory is that there are many businesses that have realised the value of the assets they hold, and are selling unused address space.

The tricky bit is trying to figure out where this is going. I believe that it won’t take long before all the ‘easy’ sales have been done. If the space is lightly-used, or unused, it’s easy to get rid of it. But those easy pickings will get shaken out, and I think we’re going to see prices rising by this time next year. They’ll go up for a few more years, then collapse once v6 is the norm.

Thoughts?

UPDATE 20150705 - RIPE has published a more detailed breakdown of transfer activity within their region. They show a similar trend.